Decision Making Principle 4: Explicit Assumptions with Falsification Plan
Every uncertain commit is a hypothesis — observables, monitors, and triggers at bind
Principle
Assumptions, monitors, and falsification triggers are recorded before dissent and bind — revision depersonalises when reality diverges.
Decision Making Principle 4 requires explicit assumptions with a falsification plan. Uncertainty must not stay implicit; revision must not become personal (“I told you so”) when assumptions fail.
What it requires
- Assumptions on the record before dissent and bind — challengers engage testable claims
- For each assumption: observable, monitor, falsification trigger, test protocol, revision on trigger
- No listed assumptions under genuine uncertainty → treat as claiming certainty; add assumptions or downgrade decision class
Why irreducible
Every uncertain commit is a hypothesis. Without principle 4, principles 6–7 fight over politics instead of observables — see We Already Decided.